Previewing the State Finals: Who We Say Wins
Man beats math – again.
After losing to Drew Pasteur and his Fantastic 50 formulas the first two weeks of the playoffs, I’ve gotten the better of them the last two weeks. I won the regional final round by one game and did it again last week in the state semifinals. I had 8 winners, while the Fantastic 50 had 7.
I correctly picked the state finals match-ups in D-I, II and V and got one of the team’s right in D-III and VI. D-IV completely through me for a loop (I had Orrville and Alter).
Regardless, here is who Drew Pasteur and the Fantastic 50 say wins this week:
Division I: St. Edward over Wayne
Division II: Maple Heights over Trotwood-Madison
Division III: Columbus Watterson over Akron Buchtel
Division IV: Chagrin Falls over Columbus Hartley
Division V: Youngstown Ursuline over Coldwater
Division VI: Delphos St. John’s over Shadyside
Here’s how I see the weekend playing out…
2010 STATE FINAL PICKS
DIVISION I
Huber Heights Wayne (12-2) vs Lakewood St. Edward (14-0)
Saturday, Dec. 4, 7 p.m., Canton Fawcett Stadium
The billing for this game reads something like: “State’s top team vs State’s top player.” But this match-up is far more than just Wayne QB Braxton Miller vs the Eagles. Since starting 3-3, Wayne has racked up eight straight wins and has played as well as anyone in the playoffs. Miller (Ohio State recruit) has been great in November, but so has senior RB Anthone Taylor (Miami and Akron offers) and Wayne’s defense. The key will be whether or not the Warriors can maintain their energy against St. Edward’s stellar offensive line that includes seniors Geoff Mogus (Northwestern recruit), Brandon Jackson (Toledo, Ball State, Ohio and Akron offers) and Trent Rivera and juniors Kyle Kalis (Ohio State commit) and Tyler Orlosky. The Eagles defensive line – anchored by senior Deonte Gibson (Pitt) and junior Greg Kuhar (state wrestling pacer) – isn’t bad either. In addition to those two, Miller will have to contend with a St. Ed’s defensive backfield led by Ball State recruit Avery Bailey. Keep an eye on Wayne senior WR/SS Tre Moore (Akron, Miami, Bowling Green, Ball State, Kent offers) and LB Teren Williams (135 tackles, 21 TFL) as well. In the postseason Miller has seemingly been able to will his team to victory with comeback wins. We think he does it again here. The Outcome? Wayne 27-24
DIVISION II
Maple Heights (14-0) vs Trotwood-Madison (12-2)
Friday, Dec. 3, 7 p.m., Massillon Paul Brown Tiger Stadium
This game should feature some fireworks. In addition to the possibility of two 2,000-yard backs (Maple Heights’ DeVonte Ransom needs just 71 yards to join Trotwood’s Antwan Gilbert) this contest features two offenses averaging 43 and 32 points and over 800 yards of combined offense a game.
Maple Heights QB Shaq Washington (Cincinnati recruit) is a rare 1,000-1,000 guy, having rushed for 1,000 yards this year and thrown for 1,700. He’s accounted for 37 TDs. After throwing for four TDs and four interceptions in the Rams first four games, Trotwood quarterback Marcus Graham (Bowling Green offer) has thrown for 17 TDs and two interceptions during the Rams nine-game win streak. He has 1,662 yards passing and has also rushed for three TDs. The key will be Trotwood’s defense and strength of schedule. The Rams played a strong Greater Western Ohio Conference slate and faced four playoff teams, including D-I stalwarts Wayne and Springfield (their only two losses and both on the road). Maple Heights didn’t play a playoff team until Week 11. The Mustangs faced only one-team with a winning record in the regular season. Defensively, the Rams have seen some offenses and players that resemble Maple Heights explosiveness and spread (see Wayne’s Braxton Miller, Springfield’s George Walker, Winton Woods’ Aaron Kemper, Kings’ Jamire Westbrook ). Leaders and brothers LB Nicholas Grigsby (114 tackles) and DB Bam Bradley (53 tackles) will have the Rams ready. Grigsby, a senior, is being courted by many schools (Michigan State, Kentucky, Kansas and MAC offers), while Bradley – its widely believed – will be the first Trotwood player under head coach Maurice Douglass’ reign to get an offer from Ohio State. The junior already has offers from Northwestern and Kentucky. Both these teams can and will score. We think Trotwood scores more. The Outcome? Trotwood 42-35
DIVISION III
Columbus Watterson (12-1) vs Akron Buchtel (11-3)
Saturday, 3 p.m., Massillon Paul Brown Tiger Stadium
These teams have one common opponent (Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary) and one common goal – win the state title. Watterson beat SVSM in Week 1 and Buchtel lost to the Irish in Week 3. We also think Buchtel loses to Watterson in Week 15. No doubt Buchtel has one of the best offenses Watterson has faced this season, but the Eagles have faired well against a slate that’s featured some solid offenses. Only one team since Week 2 (Winton Woods) has scored double-figures on Watterson. Buchtel, which started 1-2 but has gone 10-1 since, has slayed some solid programs in the postseason (Poland, Padua Franciscan, Mooney and Marlington). Can it slay one more? The Outcome? Watterson 20-14
DIVISION IV
Chagrin Falls (13-1) vs Columbus Hartley (12-2)
Friday, Dec. 3, 11 a.m., Massillon Paul Brown Tiger Stadium
If there was one team from last year’s D-IV state final you expected to get back it was Kettering Alter – not Chagrin Falls. Yet, here are the Tigers in their second straight state final. Chagrin Falls has overcome all sorts of injuries and odds this season and has one more hurdle left – Hartley’s Noah Key. Key is one of the better backs in the state regardless of division and has rushed for 2,755 yards and 39 TDs this season. The Hawks beat Alter 29-28 in last week’s state semifinal by going for and getting a 2-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. This team has guts and drive – and we think a state title come Friday afternoon. The Outcome? Hartley 28-21
DIVISION V
Coldwater (12-2) vs Youngstown Ursuline (14-0)
Saturday, Dec. 4, 11 a.m., Canton’s Fawcett Stadium
When the season started a rematch of last year’s D-V state final looked like a long shot. Yet, here we have it. No team in Ohio this fall has been playing with a heavier heart or more inspiration than Coldwater, which is playing its first season without former head coach John Reed in 16 years. Reed passed away from esophageal cancer in May after leading the Cavs to last year’s state final and two previous state titles. The Cavs opened up 1-2 under new coach Chip Otten but have since gone 10-1 with the quarterback rotation of sophomore Austin Bruns and senior Ethan Bettinger. Bruns started the season and had a stellar regular season (2,477 yards and 24 TDs) before going down with an injury in the regional semifinals. Enter Bettinger who has the Cavs in their fourth state final in six years. Coldwater senior WR/DB Reese Klenke (1,625 yards and 20 TDs) and RB/LB Adam Rammel (110 tackles) are difference makers. Speaking of difference makers, Ursuline senior Akise Teague defines that label. Teague stars on both sides of the ball and in the return game and has scored 43 TDs this year. He has an offer from Wisconsin and Ohio State came to see him last week. Overall, the Irish – who were heavy favorites to win their third straight D-V state title all year – are led by a senior class of 10 that has been a part of 52 wins and four state finals. Coldwater has been an overwhelming underdog before and shocked the world (i.e. 2007’s win over nationally-ranked Youngstown Mooney in the D-IV final) and the last team to beat the Irish in the postseason was a MAC team (Marion Local in the 2007 D-V final). Still, Ursuline has been the standard bearer in D-V all year and should end it that way. The Outcome? Ursuline 42-21
DIVISION VI
Delphos St. John’s (14-0) vs Shadyside (13-1)
Friday, Dec. 3, 11 a.m., Massillon Paul Brown Tiger Stadium
David vs Goliath. That’s what this game has been called. And for good reason. Delphos St. John’s has been the No. 1 team in the JJHuddle D-VI Power Poll all year and is the two-time defending Midwest Athletic Conference champion. The Blue Jays are also playing in their third straight D-VI state final and looking for their sixth title in seven overall championship game appearances. Since the start of the 2008 season, DSJ is 41-3. It’s 28-1 the last two years with its lone loss being in the D-VI state final last year. The Jays fell to Norwalk St. Paul and allowed the game-winning TD with five seconds left. That disappointment has fueled their drive this season. Senior QB Jordan Leininger (three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons) and LB Chris Pohlman) three straight 100-plus tackle seasons) lead the charge. Shadyside is in its second state championship game in five years and hoping for different results. The last time the Tigers made the final they lost to MAC member Marion Local 17-0. The Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak but haven’t faced near the gauntlet DSJ has in reaching this plateau. Drew Pasteur and his Fantastic 50 formula list the Tigers as 29-point underdogs. Since this classifications creation in 1994, MAC teams have now played in 14 of the 17 D-VI title games and have won 10 titles. We think they get No. 11. The Outcome? St. John’s 42-7
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