SWBL Southwestern Division Preview: Must-win time?
By Adam Adkins
Another week, another round of predictions and opinions on the SWBL Southwestern Division…here goes:
Franklin (5-2) @ Eaton (5-2)
Remember last week, when I said that either Milton-Union or Brookville would be eliminated from the de facto playoff race after their game? As we all know, the Blue Devils fell, and they are done in the playoff race (unofficially officially).
That logic applies for Franklin @ Eaton, too.
Both the Wildcats and Eagles are 5-2, and they both reside in Division 3, Region 12. (Note: That has nothing to do with the SWBL. The D and R determines playoff seeding.) Franklin is currently the 8th seed, according to the amazingly dependable Joe Eitel. Eaton, however, is a somewhat astounding 13th.
Why? It’s simple, really. Eaton is 13th right now because they’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 8-27. Yeah. That sort of speaks for itself, doesn’t it?
Franklin’s victims have a record of 12-23. Not pretty either, but better than 8-27.
And that’s the difference. Franklin has a 19 point L2 advantage.
And to be honest, I think I need to listen to myself. Here is what I wrote about Franklin last week, after laying out the teams they had beat:
“That’s 10 wins. I know, Bellbrook’s better than 1-5, but the point I want to make is, you have not beaten anyone yet.”
The same can apply to Eaton, can it not? I’ve been all over the Eagles all year, but it’s time for them to step up and prove they can be what I’ve said they can be.
I still believe they had no business losing to Milton-Union, and they shouldn’t lose to Franklin either.
But if they do, it’s over playoff-wise for the Eagles. I mean that. Sure, they still play Valley View, but any potential Harbin points gained from the victory will be negated by finishing out the year in Camden (Preble Shawnee).
Point being? If Coach Neanen, Dalton Caudill, Austin Fudge and company feel like playing football in November, then they have to beat the Wildcats.
As for Franklin, an 8 seed isn’t exactly a secure ledge to stand on. If they go into Eaton and win, I will be confident enough to call them the best team in the SWBL SWD, and perhaps overall.
That said, I’ve been on the bandwagon all year, I’m not leaving yet. I’m taking Eaton to win at home.
Carlisle (6-1) @ Valley View (5-2)
Alright, Indian fans, here is another chance to win over some doubters. So far, Carlisle has one impressive win on their record, their opening night victory over the aforementioned Wildcats.
But other than that, the Indians have mopped up the bottom feeders. They beat Brookville, Oakwood, Northridge, and Madison. I wouldn’t call the Waynesville victory real impressive, but give them credit for beating a decent Spartan team.
And although Carlisle is likely to make the playoffs (Eitel currently has them as a 5 seed in D4, R16) they still have plenty to play for. Namely, a home game.
I want all the Indian fans reading this to stop, and really think for a moment. Did you ever really consider a home playoff game a possibility for the 2009 season? I sure didn’t. Be proud, Carlisle. What a story.
As for Valley View, they are likely guaranteed to make the playoffs too. Eitel has them 6th, but they need to win too. Should the Spartans lose, they could theoretically fall to 8th, which would mean a trip to Kettering to face the nuclear bomb that we affectionately refer to as Alter.
A win wouldn’t guarantee a home playoff game by any stretch, but with Eaton next week and Brookville the week after, the Spartans could be looking at a 1-2 stretch. I can’t say for sure if that would keep Jay Niswonger, Kyle Pohl and the boys at home in November, but it sure wouldn’t help.
What a match-up, too. Carlisle, the ground it out defensive club versus Valley View, home of Pohl and that offense. I’ll take the more consistent team, and the great defense.
Carlisle wins.
Milton-Union (4-3) @ Oakwood (0-7)
I’ve wasted enough electrons harping on Oakwood. What a rough, rough year, and it’s not getting any better.
I hope they don’t quit, though. They could beat Milton-Union. I wouldn’t be all that shocked. The Bulldogs aren’t perfect. Oakwood comes out like a ball of fire, hey, why not?
That said… I won’t make that prediction.
Milton-Union has the playoffs in their sights, and they should not be slowed by the Lumberjacks. Give me the Bulldogs.
Bellbrook (1-6) @ Brookville (4-3)
Bellbrook doesn’t suck guys. I keep trying to tell you.
Don’t worry, after nearly stunning Eaton, they will roll—yes, I’m saying it—the Blue Devils, who might be dead in the water after getting beat up last week. The Milton-Union game was a mess, from the field, to the battles in the trenches back to the QB.
Brookville lost in every single area of the game. Offensively, defensively, blocking, tackling, everything.
Meanwhile, Bellbrook nearly beat a team that hammered Brookville a few weeks ago. That might not mean a lot, but it means something.
Give me the Golden Eagles. Truth be told, these teams are nearly identical, but Bellbrook’s probably feeling alright about themselves, while Brookville has to be down after last week.
Adam also maintains his blog, www.adamadkins.net, and can be reached at adamdadkins@gmail.com.
| 
