Miami Valley Playoff Predictions: Where teams stand right now
Thanks to Fantastic 50 guru Drew Pasteur, we bring the first of our weekly looks at where Miami Valley teams shape up in regards to the playoffs.
According to Pasteur, the playoff percentages below are based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.
If a team is shown at 100%, this indicates that they made the playoffs in all of the simulations (but still may not have mathematically clenched a playoff berth). By comparison, the percentage for a team that made the playoffs in 99.98% of the simulations would be rounded down to 99%.
If a team is not listed, they have not necessarily been eliminated from playoff contention. Teams whose chances are currently below 2% are omitted for brevity (but will be added in future weeks, if their playoff probabilities improve.)
The numbers in parenthesis are conditional probabilities of making the playoffs, based on a team finishing the regular season with the specified number of regular-season wins. For example 8W-95% means that the team has a 95% chance of receiving a playoff berth, if they finish the regular season with an 8-2 record.
Teams are listed in order of likelihood of earning a playoff berth (not by projected seed). For each region, the projected Harbin point cut-off is noted. This is the estimated number of points the #8 seed in the region will have at the end of the regular season. Minimum and maximum cut-off values (the highest and lowest Harbin points for the #8 seed throughout the 10,000 simulations) are also included. The span of this range will decrease with each passing week, as it becomes clearer how many points it will take to make the playoffs in a given region.
Disclaimer: These numbers are only as good as the information on which they are based. Incorrect scores, wins later forfeited, incomplete schedule information (particularly regarding non-OHSAA teams), or even error in the computational coding could render any conclusions inaccurate. The owner of fantastic50.net takes no responsibility for any damages incurred based on the use of this information.
HERE’S WHERE MIAMI VALLEY TEAMS STAND RIGHT NOW:
D-I, Region 3 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.44 (possible range 14.30-23.08)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 99% (Home Game Chance 99%)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 99% (Home Game Chance 99%)
Westerville South (Westerville) 84% ( 5W-6% 6W-44% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Groveport-Madison (Groveport) 81% ( 6W-18% 7W-72% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 70% ( 6W-19% 7W-78% 8W-100% )
Lancaster 63% ( 5W-22% 6W-90% 7W-100% )
Hayes (Delaware) 59% ( 5W-3% 6W-39% 7W-95% 8W-100% )
Springfield 59% ( 5W-3% 6W-35% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 47% ( 6W-23% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
Westerville Central (Westerville) 27% ( 5W-2% 6W-28% 7W-83% 8W-99% )
Northland (Columbus) 21% ( 7W-8% 8W-71% )
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 16% ( 4W-33% 5W-99% 6W-100% )
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 15% ( 4W-1% 5W-27% 6W-96% 7W-100% )
Thomas Worthington (Worthington) 14% ( 6W-10% 7W-54% 8W-100% )
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 13% ( 4W-83% 5W-100% )
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 12% ( 6W-7% 7W-57% )
Troy 8% ( 6W-13% 7W-75% )
Lincoln (Gahanna) 7% ( 5W-1% 6W-27% 7W-99% )
D-I, Region 4 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 22.71 (possible range 18.40-26.94)
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 99% (Home Game Chance 90%)
Elder (Cincinnati) 98% ( 6W-52% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Anderson (Cincinnati) 84% ( 7W-7% 8W-63% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 76% ( 5W-4% 6W-72% 7W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 68% ( 7W-8% 8W-50% 9W-98% )
Springboro 60% ( 7W-3% 8W-30% 9W-92% 10W-100% )
Northmont (Clayton) 53% ( 5W-2% 6W-36% 7W-98% 8W-100% )
Middletown 51% ( 8W-8% 9W-62% 10W-99% )
Centerville 43% ( 7W-3% 8W-44% 9W-99% )
Lebanon 42% ( 7W-2% 8W-37% 9W-98% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 28% ( 6W-19% 7W-88% 8W-100% )
Colerain (Cincinnati) 28% ( 7W-5% 8W-82% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 13% ( 7W-23% 8W-93% 9W-100% )
Loveland 13% ( 6W-2% 7W-61% 8W-100% )
Fairborn 12% ( 7W-4% 8W-82% )
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 11% ( 6W-4% 7W-64% 8W-100% )
Fairfield 6% ( 6W-2% 7W-28% 8W-98% )
Beavercreek 5% ( 7W-2% 8W-48% 9W-100% )
Princeton (Cincinnati) 3% ( 6W-1% 7W-36% 8W-97% )
Milford 3% ( 7W-4% 8W-72% 9W-100% )
Glen Este (Cincinnati) 2% ( 7W-19% 8W-100% )
D-II, Region 8 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 14.27 (possible range 9.25-19.15)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (Home Game Chance 99%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 100% (Home Game Chance 99%)
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 99% (Home Game Chance 99%)
West Carrollton 96% ( 5W-25% 6W-63% 7W-87% 8W-98% 9W-99% )
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 81% ( 4W-33% 5W-85% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 52% ( 5W-11% 6W-56% 7W-97% 8W-100% )
Wilmington 44% ( 5W-6% 6W-43% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Northwest (Cincinnati) 39% ( 6W-11% 7W-69% 8W-99% )
Walnut Hills (Cincinnati) 37% ( 6W-15% 7W-59% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Ross (Hamilton) 32% ( 5W-22% 6W-82% 7W-99% )
Carroll (Dayton) 23% ( 5W-2% 6W-52% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Greenville 21% ( 4W-25% 5W-80% 6W-100% )
Harrison 17% ( 5W-24% 6W-90% 7W-100% )
Sidney 16% ( 5W-11% 6W-69% 7W-100% )
Edgewood (Trenton) 15% ( 5W-14% 6W-95% )
Little Miami (Morrow) 11% ( 5W-12% 6W-82% 7W-100% )
Western Brown (Mount Orab) 8% ( 6W-20% 7W-85% 8W-100% )
Kings (Kings Mills) 2% ( 5W-14% 6W-99% )
Butler (Vandalia) 2% ( 5W-3% 6W-55% )
D-III, Region 10 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.91 (possible range 11.95-20.15)
Napoleon 97% ( 4W-4% 5W-29% 6W-84% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 92% ( 4W-9% 5W-68% 6W-99% 7W-100% )
Perkins (Sandusky) 89% ( 7W-12% 8W-68% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Bellefontaine 78% ( 7W-10% 8W-72% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 76% ( 4W-7% 5W-54% 6W-98% 7W-100% )
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 64% ( 6W-2% 7W-44% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bryan 63% ( 7W-19% 8W-92% 9W-100% )
Graham (St Paris) 59% ( 7W-15% 8W-87% )
Buckeye Valley (Delaware) 48% ( 7W-4% 8W-67% 9W-99% )
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 39% ( 6W-2% 7W-33% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Bellevue 35% ( 6W-4% 7W-58% 8W-99% )
Defiance 20% ( 6W-1% 7W-38% 8W-99% )
Shawnee (Lima) 11% ( 6W-1% 7W-33% )
Clyde 6% ( 6W-6% 7W-94% )
Oak Harbor 5% ( 6W-2% 7W-57% )
Memorial (St Marys) 4% ( 6W-2% 7W-55% 8W-100% )
Shelby 4% ( 7W-6% 8W-66% )
Bexley (Columbus) 3% ( 6W-2% 7W-54% )
Columbian (Tiffin) 3% ( 7W-13% )
East (Columbus) 2% ( 6W-3% 7W-81% )
D-III, Region 12 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.28 (possible range 11.59-19.20)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 99% (Home Game Chance 90%)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 90% ( 5W-15% 6W-57% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
New Richmond 82% ( 7W-13% 8W-69% 9W-98% 10W-100% )
Eaton 72% ( 6W-4% 7W-27% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 71% ( 5W-9% 6W-41% 7W-88% 8W-99% 9W-100%)
Franklin 60% ( 6W-10% 7W-54% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Monroe 59% ( 7W-23% 8W-89% 9W-100% )
Washington (Washington Court House) 50% ( 5W-3% 6W-36% 7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Jackson 42% ( 6W-3% 7W-27% 8W-94% 9W-100% )
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 35% ( 5W-10% 6W-73% 7W-99% )
Shawnee (Springfield) 35% ( 6W-5% 7W-74% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Goshen 25% ( 6W-14% 7W-90% 8W-100% )
Waverly 16% ( 6W-8% 7W-80% 8W-99% )
Norwood 13% ( 5W-3% 6W-45% 7W-99% )
Mc Clain (Greenfield) 13% ( 5W-2% 6W-44% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 11% ( 6W-1% 7W-68% )
Miami Trace (Washington Court House) 8% ( 5W-7% 6W-74% )
Bethel-Tate (Bethel) 4% ( 7W-2% 8W-27% )
Hillsboro 4% ( 7W-5% 8W-43% )
Dunbar (Dayton) 3% ( 6W-1% 7W-25% )
Kenton Ridge (Springfield) 3% ( 6W-8% 7W-92% 8W-100% )
Roger Bacon (St Bernard) 2% ( 4W-1% 5W-40% 6W-100% )
D-IV, Region 14 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.93 (possible range 12.70-20.65)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 93% ( 6W-22% 7W-69% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Clear Fork (Bellville) 91% ( 5W-5% 6W-38% 7W-93% 8W-100% )
Genoa Area (Genoa) 88% ( 8W-5% 9W-52% 10W-99% )
Triway (Wooster) 87% ( 6W-22% 7W-73% 8W-99% )
Edison (Milan) 86% ( 7W-15% 8W-68% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Galion 80% ( 7W-15% 8W-67% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Orrville 73% ( 5W-21% 6W-79% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Wellington 62% ( 6W-9% 7W-67% 8W-99% )
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 41% ( 7W-7% 8W-60% 9W-99% )
Eastwood (Pemberville) 39% ( 8W-11% 9W-90% 10W-100% )
Fostoria 21% ( 6W-1% 7W-29% 8W-99% )
Bucyrus 16% ( 8W-4% 9W-66% )
Black River (Sullivan) 7% ( 6W-8% 7W-87% )
Van Wert 6% ( 7W-23% 8W-99% )
Clearview (Lorain) 5% ( 8W-7% )
Wauseon 4% ( 7W-4% 8W-81% )
Keystone (La Grange) 2% ( 7W-2% 8W-47% )
D-IV, Region 16 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.93 (possible range 11.09-22.01)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 99% (Home Game Chance 97%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 99% (Home Game Chance 90%)
Kenton 99% (Home Game Chance 74%)
Carlisle 99% (Home Game Chance 67%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 97% ( 6W-25% 7W-48% 8W-81% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
London 72% ( 5W-3% 6W-32% 7W-80% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Valley View (Germantown) 70% ( 5W-6% 6W-43% 7W-96% 8W-100% )
Bishop Fenwick (Franklin) 56% ( 6W-14% 7W-59% 8W-98% 9W-100% )
Waynesville 32% ( 7W-14% 8W-68% )
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 27% ( 5W-2% 6W-43% 7W-96% )
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 17% ( 6W-4% 7W-58% )
Brookville 16% ( 7W-21% 8W-87% )
Milton-Union (West Milton) 5% ( 6W-7% 7W-58% )
Madison Plains (London) 3% ( 5W-21% 6W-99% )
Northeastern (Springfield) 2% ( 6W-2% 7W-37% )
D-V, Region 20 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.56 (possible range 11.05-19.40)
Coldwater 99% (Home Game Chance 85%)
St Henry 96% ( 5W-14% 6W-54% 7W-86% 8W-100% )
North Union (Richwood) 87% ( 7W-23% 8W-76% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 83% ( 7W-3% 8W-30% 9W-80% 10W-99% )
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 75% ( 5W-14% 6W-32% 7W-42% 8W-65% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
West Jefferson 75% ( 7W-11% 8W-79% 9W-100% )
Miami East (Casstown) 66% ( 7W-13% 8W-49% 9W-99% )
Anna 57% ( 6W-2% 7W-25% 8W-83% 9W-100% )
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 50% ( 6W-9% 7W-56% 8W-96% )
Badin (Hamilton) 44% ( 5W-4% 6W-30% 7W-80% 8W-99% )
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 43% ( 7W-24% 8W-86% 9W-100% )
Mechanicsburg 17% ( 7W-8% 8W-88% )
East Clinton (Lees Creek) 4% ( 7W-12% 8W-96% )
Versailles 3% ( 7W-24% )
Fairbanks (Milford Center) 2% ( 8W-9% )
D-VI, Region 22 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.47 (possible range 8.65-14.80)
St John’s (Delphos) 99% (Home Game Chance 94%)
Ada 99% (Home Game Chance 87%)
Carey 98% ( 6W-37% 7W-89% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 98% ( 5W-24% 6W-53% 7W-91% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Leipsic 82% ( 6W-10% 7W-82% 8W-100% )
Arlington 80% ( 6W-13% 7W-62% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Edgerton 64% ( 6W-7% 7W-56% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Upper Scioto Valley (Mc Guffey) 59% ( 7W-11% 8W-82% 9W-99% )
Toledo Christian (Toledo) 37% ( 7W-20% 8W-84% )
Mc Comb 36% ( 6W-2% 7W-40% 8W-99% )
Cory-Rawson (Rawson) 21% ( 6W-3% 7W-77% 8W-100% )
Hilltop (West Unity) 6% ( 8W-20% )
Antwerp 4% ( 6W-8% 7W-82% )
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 4% ( 6W-2% 7W-56% )
Columbus Grove 4% ( 6W-22% 7W-99% )
Mohawk (Sycamore) 3% ( 5W-1% 6W-30% 7W-100% )
Ottawa Hills (Toledo) 2% ( 7W-16% 8W-93% )
D-VI, Region 24 Playoff Berth Odds
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.48 (possible range 8.45-14.80)
Fort Loramie 99% (Home Game Chance 71%)
Lockland 94% ( 5W-30% 6W-64% 7W-93% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Ansonia 91% ( 6W-2% 7W-47% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 83% ( 4W-1% 5W-25% 6W-93% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 79% ( 6W-18% 7W-77% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 74% ( 6W-15% 7W-48% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 70% ( 7W-17% 8W-88% 9W-99% )
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 65% ( 5W-23% 6W-89% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
Covington 63% ( 6W-15% 7W-79% 8W-99% )
Mississinawa Valley (Union City) 43% ( 6W-9% 7W-55% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Catholic Central (Springfield) 16% ( 6W-17% 7W-94% 8W-100% )
Sciotoville Community (Portsmouth) 14% ( 7W-23% 8W-99% )
New Bremen 4% ( 5W-1% 6W-62% 7W-100% )
Jefferson Township (Dayton) 2% ( 7W-14% 8W-89% )
FOR A LISTING OF EVERY OHIO PLAYOFF REGION CLICK HERE
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